WP 4

The WP will analyse regional tipping points in the southern African region towards the provision of climate services such as informing adaptation actions and policy. This will be done through a series of engagements with various actors within case studies to co-develop appropriate adaptation actions.

Objectives

Climate change may manifest in southern Africa through systematic incremental changes, but alternatively also through sudden and unprecedented change. Through either of these mechanisms, critical thresholds in the tolerance of water, agricultural or ecosystems may be reached, potentially leading to the collapse of these systems. Although policy makers in SADC and stakeholders across the sectors of water, agriculture and biodiversity are in urgent need of probabilistic estimates of such critical tipping points being exceeded over the next few decades, such estimates are currently not available. This project will assist in addressing this challenge. Through a co-production approach, it will firstly identify key sensitivities and thresholds in a number of important water, food and biodiversity systems in southern Africa. Secondly, it will project the likelihood of these systems collapsing over the next few decades through to the end of the 21st century. Finally, adaptation options will be formulated that can begin to enhance more integrated and robust decision making to some of the tipping point related risks that will be considered in southern Africa. At a regional scale, the project will explore the potential occurrence of “day zero” events across the major cities and industrial regions of southern Africa. Such tipping points in water availability may be induced through unprecedented multi-year droughts under climate change, in combination with urban and industrial growth that lead to enhanced water demand. Transboundary water transfers have been proposed as an adaptation to such impacts, for example from the Lesotho in South Africa to Gaborone in Botswana, or from the Okavango to Gaborone. This project will assess the feasibility of the supposed regional adaptation measure. Unprecedented multi-year droughts in combination with oppressive temperatures may also imply tipping points in the cattle industry, maize crop and biodiversity conservation in southern Africa. The project will explore the probabilities of tipping points, and how these may enhance other underlying drivers and vulnerabilities in the system. Mechanisms that can enhance resilience in these contexts will also be explored through engagements with stakeholders. For example, cross-country national parks and conservation areas that make feasible extensive animal migration have been proposed as a regional adaptation to such impacts. Across the southern African region tipping points may also be reached in terms of rural water scarcity and oppressive temperatures impacting on communities and their livelihoods. Such tipping points will also be explored and adaptation options will be sought through a co-production approach with stakeholders.